Interactive tool · Prediction markets
Polymarket profit calculator: payout, return & edge
Enter a stake and a share price to see exactly what a trade returns if it wins, what you lose if it does not, and, if you add your own probability estimate, whether you have any edge over the market.
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How likely you think the outcome is. Sets your edge below.
Your estimate (55%) vs the market (40%). Expected value at your estimate: $37.50 per trade. Positive edge is necessary, not sufficient, edge must be measured, not assumed.
Arithmetic from your inputs, not a prediction. Taker orders pay a fee that reduces net profit (makers generally pay none); this tool does not estimate fees. Not financial advice.
Check availability in your jurisdiction before signing up.
How to read the numbers
The maths is simple: a winning share is worth $1, so a cheaper price means a bigger return but a lower implied probability. The harder part is the edge figure. It only means something if your probability estimate is genuinely better than the crowd's, reliably, after fees. That is the whole subject of our guide to finding and measuring edge, and if you want to automate a strategy, the trading-bot guide shows how. New to the mechanics? Start with markets explained.
Frequently asked questions
How do I calculate profit on Polymarket?
Each share costs between $0.00 and $1.00 and pays exactly $1.00 if the outcome happens, or $0.00 if it does not. So your shares = stake divided by price, your payout if it resolves Yes = shares times $1, and your profit = payout minus stake. Buy at $0.40 and a winning share returns $1.00, a 150% gain; if it loses, you lose your stake.
What does the share price mean?
The price is the market's implied probability of the outcome. A share at $0.65 implies roughly a 65% chance. If your own estimate is higher than the price, you have positive 'edge' on paper, which is what the estimate slider shows.
Does this include Polymarket's fees?
No. Maker orders (resting limit orders) generally pay no fee, while taker orders (instant fills) pay a fee computed from a variable formula, so net profit on a taker fill is a little lower than shown. We don't estimate fees here rather than guess the formula; check current fees on Polymarket's official docs.
What is 'edge' and why does it matter?
Edge is the gap between your probability estimate and the market price. Positive edge is necessary to be profitable but not sufficient, because your estimate is itself uncertain and fees and adverse selection eat into returns. Edge has to be measured over many trades, not assumed from one.
Is this financial advice?
No. This calculator is arithmetic from the numbers you enter, not a prediction or recommendation. Trading prediction markets involves risk, including loss of your entire stake. Nothing here is financial advice.
Ready to place a trade?
Create your account and put the numbers to work. Signing up through our link costs you nothing extra.
Check availability in your jurisdiction before signing up.
Related guides
Risk & eligibility
Trading prediction markets involves risk, including loss of your entire stake. Availability and rules vary by country and US state. 18+ only. This is general information, not financial or legal advice. Verify current terms on Polymarket's official site before trading.
This page is operated by Refer Labs and contains a disclosed affiliate referral link to Polymarket. We may earn a commission if you sign up through it, at no extra cost to you. The calculator is arithmetic from your inputs, not a prediction or financial advice. Our standards are at how we research.